The light snow that fell throughout the day Sunday amounted to a little as a trace to the 1.8″ observed at the Rockford International Airport. That my friends is now the highest snowfall total for the 2022-2023 winter season thus far. Sad I know.
This is also why we have seen our seasonal snowfall deficit climb over a foot recently. But it’s been the same story however this winter season, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin being on the short end of the stick with snowfall. While our next winter storm is a few days away, trends are making it seem likely that we’ll miss our on the highest snowfall potential once again.
Ridging both aloft and at the surface will result in a relatively tranquil start to the week. Both Monday and Tuesday feature quite a bit of cloud cover, with high temperatures peaking in the 30s. A little warmer tomorrow than this afternoon.
Forecast models then show our next weather-maker diving off the Rocky Mountains and landing deep into southern Texas early Tuesday. This will place areas across the southern plains under the greatest threat for snow. Hence why the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Texas Panhandle, with a winter storm watch in place across central Oklahoma.
Midweek Snow Threat:
By Wednesday, the low aims to remain well to the south of the area, tracking through the bootheel of Missouri, western TN, and western KY. This will keep the great chance for snowfall accumulations away from the Stateline.
However, there will be enough atmospheric moisture present for a round of scattered snow showers beginning late Tuesday night, stretching through the first half of Wednesday. With that being said, the event is still a few days out. We’ll have to keep a close eye on how models trend with this system over the next 48 hours. That is why It will be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast during that stretch. But for now, it seems like we’ll be missing out on another winter storm barring any significant changes in the track.
Severe Threat South:
On the warmer side of the low, severe weather is likely across portions of the Gulf States. Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed the southernmost areas in LA, MS, AL, and a portion of the Florida Panhandle under a enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather.
Wind profiles support the potential for a significant outbreak. The two uncertainties however is how much moisture can be pumped into the warm sector and the amount of instability present. But if everything does come together, all severe hazards will be on the table, including the possibility for a strong tornado or two. The severe threat lowers into Wednesday with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) in place across the Southeast U.S.